Chapter 61: The Ultimate Move is Here

Chai Xiao shook his head.

"Mother, this is not about gambling, because the price of this single-match lottery ticket remains twenty coins each."

Noble Consort Yun was stunned.

"Still twenty coins each? Then of course it cannot be considered gambling!"

"However, if it is a single-match lottery, guessing the outcome—even in a round-robin tournament where the chances of correctly guessing a win, loss, or draw are quite high—"

"By then, a ticket costs only twenty coins, but a correct guess pays out ten or twenty taels! That would truly result in a massive loss!"

"Furthermore, since they are all lottery tickets, why not bundle them together with the third major category of guessing games managed by Jianfeng and the others?"

Chai Xiao blinked his eyes.

"Mother, if I told you that this, despite seeming simple, is actually quite complex and can only be handled by you and Zhang Bao, would you believe me?"

Noble Consort Yun paused, but then nodded.

"Very well! I believe you!"

Chai Xiao smiled.

In truth, this was the "local single-match football lottery" he had been yearning for—his ultimate trump card—and it was finally about to be unleashed.

The reason he did not assign Jianfeng and the others, who were in charge of the third major category, to handle this was because the "single-match lottery" was extremely intricate, involving precise odds calculation.

Upholding the principle of "important matters must be handled by capable people," it was far better to let his mother and Zhang Bao take exclusive charge of it.

After all, Jianyu, who possessed the potential of a "second-tier actuary," had already been assigned to manage the second major category concerning food and drinks.

Although Jianfeng had half-heartedly grasped certain algorithms, she was still a considerable distance away from mastering the most difficult aspect: odds.

Therefore, having the "first-tier actuary," Zhang Bao, to helm and safeguard the operation would guarantee a much higher success rate.

Naturally, Zhang Bao would still need to spend a long time studying the complex data models involved.

Consequently, he decided to simplify things once more, even resorting to the clumsiest yet most effective method: "rote memorization of formulas."

"Let me preface this: the calculation of this single-match lottery involves a decimal, or rather, a fractional concept. Let us see if it is easy to understand."

Noble Consort Yun, Su Zhongjing, and Zhang Bao all wore dark expressions.

When had this precious young master—who feared arithmetic even more than literature and history courses, and would either feign sleep or sneak away whenever numbers were mentioned—ever spoken publicly about "decimals"?

If time could be turned back to yesterday, the person most deserving of being labeled as "utterly ridiculous" for such a feat would undoubtedly have been him.

Yet today, if someone were to look for a ridiculous person, perhaps the title should fall upon the few of them instead.

To be able to play the pig to eat the tiger even in this domain—his act had been far too convincing!

The three of them stared blankly, unsure whether they should nod or shake their heads.

Chai Xiao smiled.

"Actually, it is easy to remember. This number is zero point six five, sixty-five percent!"

"Put another way, it is six qian and five fen out of one tael of silver."

"In arithmetic texts, this is referred to as six fen and five li!"

Hearing this, the three of them nodded repeatedly.

In the current Great Qi dynasty, decimal points were not yet used, but fractions certainly were.

The *Jiuzhang Suanshu* (The Nine Chapters on the Mathematical Art), compiled during the Eastern Han dynasty, was already widely utilized in various mathematical academies of the Tang dynasty.

Therefore, speaking of sixty-five percent was completely comprehensible.

And expressing it as six qian and five fen out of one tael of silver made it even more vivid.

Arithmetic originates from life.

Chai Xiao continued.

"In the round-robin tournament, if two exceptionally popular individuals are matched against each other, a single-match lottery can be launched."

"A ticket costs twenty coins, with the names of the two individuals written on it, along with three circles designated for 'win,' 'draw,' and 'loss.'"

Unlike other 'Martial Sovereign Lotteries,' beneath these three circles, specific reference odds must be clearly indicated."

"To give an example, among the Twelve Golden Hairpins, the two closest in martial arts prowess are probably Jianfeng and Jianyu."

Zhang Bao, who possessed a profound understanding of martial arts principles, nodded.

"Those two are evenly matched, having traded wins and losses against each other. Within twenty moves, they will likely fight to a draw, but within a hundred moves, Jianfeng holds a slightly better chance of winning."

Chai Xiao's eyes lit up.

"Then this example couldn't be more appropriate!"

"Mother, Teacher, after hearing Zhang Bao reveal this intelligence, how would you choose?"

Noble Consort Yun answered promptly.

"If it is the initial stage of the round-robin and their very first encounter, they will act quite cautiously. Therefore, within twenty moves, the probability of a draw is the highest!"

Su Zhongjing pondered for a moment.

"I rather think that girl Jianyu is calculating and shrewd."

"She must have also deduced that since it is their opening battle and their strengths are comparable, both will prioritize defense before offense."

"Since Jianfeng's martial arts are slightly superior after all, her attacks will naturally carry a bit more unbridled confidence."

"Consequently, she will likely carve out an unorthodox path: precisely counterattacking the moment Jianfeng launches an offensive, striving to leave a few more white chalk marks on Jianfeng's clothes."

"By the time Jianfeng slowly figures it out, it will already be too late; Jianyu will have switched to an all-out defense, leaving no openings."

"According to the rules of the round-robin, as long as one is not knocked out of the ring or falls down three times consecutively, the final outcome is decided by points."

"Thus, Jianyu could very well win by a narrow margin of one or two points. Although the victory would be perilous, a win is still a win!"

Chai Xiao gently applauded.

"Splendid! In just this brief moment, we already have entirely different betting choices!"

"Zhang Bao, if you were given ten taels of silver, would you spend nine taels betting on a draw between the two, and one tael betting on Jianfeng to win?"

Zhang Bao was startled.

"Young Lord! I honestly would bet precisely like that!"

Chai Xiao had Heyun fetch pen and paper, and with his rather clumsy handwriting, he wrote down 'Jianfeng vs. Jianyu' and drew three circles.

"Putting aside the final outcome for a moment and speaking solely of probabilities, the three of you would undoubtedly choose 'draw' first, 'win' second, and 'loss' last."

The three of them nodded heavily.

"Indeed so!"

Beneath the three circles, Chai Xiao wrote down three numerical odds: two, one, and three.

"Let us calculate: multiplying each of these three numbers by six fen and five li gives us one and three-fiftieths, six fen and five li, and one and nineteen-twentieths respectively..."
*(Note: Mathematical simplification preserving the literary flow)*

"If a person has sixty wen in hand, the safest approach is to spend twenty wen on each of the three options."

"Then, if the two draw, they win the second option. Multiplying twenty by sixty-five percent gives thirteen wen, resulting in a net loss of a full forty-seven wen."

"If Jianfeng wins, they win the first option. Multiplying twenty by the first odd yields twenty-six wen, a loss of thirty-four wen."

"If Jianfeng loses, they win the third option. Multiplying twenty by the third odd yields thirty-nine wen, a loss of twenty-one wen."

"The last option incurs the least loss because that single item nearly doubled in return, but because forty wen was spent on the other two items upfront, it still results in a net deficit."

"In other words, betting evenly means the buyer always loses, and the seller always profits."

"To change the betting method: if all sixty wen are placed on a draw, and the final result is indeed a draw, they receive thirty-nine wen—still a loss of twenty-one wen."

If it does not end in a draw, the entire sixty wen is lost."

"If all sixty wen are placed on Jianfeng to win, and she indeed wins, they receive seventy-eight wen—a profit of eighteen wen."

"If she does not win, the entire sixty wen is lost."

"If all sixty wen are placed on Jianfeng to lose, and she indeed loses, they receive one hundred and seventeen wen—a profit of fifty-seven wen."

"If she does not lose, the entire sixty wen is lost."

"In other words, unless someone like the Teacher takes an unorthodox path and continuously wagers heavy sums, the seller will never have to subsidize payouts."

"As for the vast majority of spectators—even those who possess some insider intelligence, such as Mother—choosing the universally favored draw essentially guarantees a financial loss."

"This is because when everyone chooses a certain option, the odds drop accordingly."

"Take Zhang Bao for example: unless he continuously wins successive bets, any single victory will yield only a marginal profit."

"And the moment he attempts to utilize the other two options to hedge part of his risk, he immediately incurs a deficit."

"Now, do you understand why this single-match lottery, despite selling for only twenty coins a ticket, is tantamount to guaranteed profit—and even massive profit—for the house?"

The three of them nodded thoughtfully, clearly moved by his meticulous and thorough "paper calculations."

They always said that buyers could never be as shrewd as sellers, and it turned out to be entirely true!

Of course, the premise was that the seller had to fully comprehend the ins and outs of the mechanism; otherwise, every single payout would be a direct loss!

At that moment, Chai Xiao drew a minus sign next to the three circles, followed by a plus sign.

"Didn't we say earlier that by the time we reach the elimination rounds, lottery tickets would become scarcer?"

"In fact, that is not the case at all. Once the single-match lottery is introduced, spectators who hold deep attachments to their favorite fighters will undoubtedly buy more and buy heavily."

"By the time of the elimination rounds, the fighters will already be quite familiar with one another."

"If two opponents drawn by lot happen to have a relatively wide gap in strength, we can also adopt a 'handicap' system."

"For instance, 'minus three' means the latter fighter effectively starts with a three-move deficit, and in the final point tally, the former must secure a margin of four moves to be declared the victor."

"Plus three means the former fighter effectively starts with a three-move advantage, and as long as they do not lose by four moves in the end, it counts as a win or a draw."

"This is the calculation and configuration model for the single-match lottery, which is highly likely to become an explosive success!"

After listening, the three of them were deeply convinced.

This trump card that their precious young master had been holding back was truly formidable, with boundless prospects.

Judging by this, this single item alone, combined with the aforementioned "point cards," might genuinely generate tens of thousands of taels.

Terrifying!

Simply terrifying!

Who knows when such bizarre "moneymaking methods" had ever been crammed into this little fellow's head!

Noble Consort Yun glanced at Zhang Bao.

Understanding her intent, Zhang Bao spread his hands and extended them toward Chai Xiao.

"Your Lordship, I earnestly beg you to bestow this calculation draft upon us so that we may study it thoroughly!"

Chai Xiao smiled, readily agreeing, and quickly added a few strokes detailing specific calculation methods.

"Very well! It is yours!"

"I hope that you, our chief actuary, will figure out everyone's moves ahead of time!"

Zhang Bao received the "imperial calligraphy paper" with both hands and solemnly promised.

"This subject will certainly not fail Your Lordship's trust!"

With a half-smile, Chai Xiao unexpectedly began to joke.

"Seeing as you are so confident, how about I gift you a cheat code? Do you want it?"

A cheat code?

Something like that could even be gifted?

Not only Zhang Bao, but Noble Consort Yun and Su Zhongjing were completely dumbfounded.

What sort of absurdity was this now?